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Friday, July 25, 2025 Edition
China, Inside The Wire: Part II
When China moves on Taiwan, the first Americans to feel it won't be soldiers—they'll be citizens in Cincinnati, Seattle, and Sacramento who suddenly can't access clean water, power their homes, or withdraw money from your bank - however large or small. This isn't collateral damage; it's the plan.
The 2027 Countdown
Xi Jinping has set 2027 as the deadline for the People's Liberation Army's complete military modernization and Taiwan reunification capability. This date—marking the PLA's centennial—isn't arbitrary. It's when Beijing believes it will possess the asymmetric capabilities to neutralize U.S. intervention while holding American civilian infrastructure hostage.
The groundwork is already laid. From Operation Aurora in 2009 to this week's breach of the National Nuclear Security Administration, China has methodically infiltrated our most critical systems. Volt Typhoon (or Salt, other Typhoons) isn't their opening move—it's their endgame.
Why Taiwan Is China's Red Line
Taiwan represents an existential crisis for Communist Party legitimacy. When Chiang Kai-shek and 2 million Nationalists fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing to Mao's forces, they created what Beijing views as an open wound in Chinese sovereignty. For 75 years, the CCP has promised reunification. Xi has staked his legacy on being the leader who delivers.
But Taiwan is more than symbolism:
Economic Leverage: Taiwan produces 92% of the world's most advanced semiconductors—the chips powering everything from iPhones to F-35s
Strategic Geography: Control of Taiwan breaks the First Island Chain, unleashing China's navy into the Pacific
Party Survival: Failure to take Taiwan could trigger the CCP's collapse
This explains why China has pre-positioned cyber weapons throughout American infrastructure. For Beijing, this isn't optional—it's do or die.
The Operational Blueprint
China's strategy centers on a 72-hour fait accompli: seize Taiwan before America can respond. The cyber component is explicit in PLA doctrine: "degrade adversary C4ISR, weapon systems, and support nodes early in a conflict to seize information dominance."
Target List:
California's power grid (40 million residents)
Port facilities in Los Angeles and Seattle (military deployment nodes)
Wall Street trading systems and SWIFT networks
Water treatment for major metropolitan areas
Telecommunications backbone, especially Pacific cables
The Activation Sequence:
Hour Zero: Cyber strikes blind U.S. military command systems
Hours 1-24: Cascading infrastructure failures create domestic chaos
Hours 24-72: China completes Taiwan operations while America struggles to respond
Inside Your Networks Now
Microsoft confirmed this week that Chinese hackers exploited SharePoint vulnerabilities to breach our nuclear weapons oversight agency. They're not preparing to be inside—they ARE inside, using "living-off-the-land" techniques that turn your own administrative tools into weapons.
Since 2019, Volt Typhoon has mapped dependencies across all 16 critical infrastructure sectors. They know which natural gas pipeline disruption would black out military bases. They know which port systems would halt Pacific force deployment. They've had years to perfect their attack sequencing.
Executive Action Plan
Immediate Priorities:
1. Assume Compromise
Chinese actors have already mapped your systems
Hunt for PowerShell, WMI, and scheduled task anomalies NOW
Deploy deception technology to detect lateral movement
2. Operational Resilience
Aggressive IT/OT separation—especially engineering workstations
Air-gapped backup controls for critical operations
"Break glass" procedures for emergency isolation
3. Drill for Darkness
Practice incident response with primary communications down
Establish out-of-band coordination (radio, satellite, courier)
Train manual overrides for all life-critical systems
Quick Hits
2027: Xi's deadline, not speculation
Active since 2019: They're already inside
72 hours: China's window is shorter than a holiday weekend
Cyber first: Infrastructure attacks precede missiles
Your tools: Living-off-the-land means YOUR systems are weapons
Dominoes: 16 sectors mapped for cascade failure
C4ISR: Blind the military's eyes, paralyze its response
No internet: Your response plan probably assumes connectivity
The Hard Truth
Traditional cyber defenses assume you're keeping attackers out. That ship has sailed. Survival depends on operating when networks fail entirely. Every day you delay preparation, Chinese actors fortify their positions deeper in your infrastructure.
When the crisis hits, you won't have time to plan. You won't have internet to coordinate. You might not have power to read this warning.
While Americans debate whether Taiwan is "their problem," China has already decided it is. The breach already happened. The question is: Will we respond six paces ahead or twelve paces behind?
Collectively, our Raptor Community stands the watch.
The DR Team
/smb
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- Recommended Reading that helped to inform this series:
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