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Friday, July 18, 2025 Edition
China, Inside The Wire: Part I
Why This Information Matters:
If you lead security, run a business line, sell or represent a cyber-manufacturer - or perhaps you brief government brass, China’s cyber playbook isn’t some academic white paper—it’s the ops plan coming for your network, or your customer’s network. Miss the bigger story and every breach looks like a random burglary of a low-value, vacant building. In reality, we’re in a strategic long game where today’s quiet recon turns into tomorrow’s advanced weapon.
Understanding the strategy lets you:
Spot patterns across incidents that may look unrelated at first glance.
Prove out budget requests by tying spend to real adversary motions.
Point defenses at what Beijing actually values, not just theoretical risks.
Predict which systems light up next based on China’s playbook
Rally siloed teams before attackers do it for you.
Bottom line: that “dwell time” you eventually find in logs isn’t your SOC napping—it’s China lying in wait.
Part I – Strategic Intent
China’s been reshaping the battlefield inside Western networks for two decades, and the tempo is only rising. Today we kick off a five‑part dive into Beijing’s grand cyber strategy, starting with the mindset powering the “China Dream” of national rejuvenation by 2049.
The Historical Drive
To get why China pushes so hard in cyber, roll back to the “Century of Humiliation” (1839‑1949). Foreign powers steamrolled a weakened China, and Beijing has sworn “never again.” U.S. tech and military muscle are seen not as destiny but as a roadblock to China’s rightful claim & return to center stage. Cyber gives them an asymmetric fast‑track—undercut Western economies, scoop up IP, and level the playing field without firing a single round.
The Operational Reality
China’s U.S. campaign has come in waves:
Early 2000s: Loud, messy IP grabs.
2009 – Operation Aurora: Google, Adobe, and dozens more popped for source code.
2011 – RSA breach: SecurID seeds stolen, opening doors across the defense base.
2015 – OPM hack: 22 million personnel files, a counter‑intel goldmine.
Fast‑forward: since 2019, crews like Volt Typhoon live inside power, water, and telecom networks, playing “hide in plain sight” until someone in Beijing says go. A fresh DHS memo shows Salt Typhoon burrowed through a U.S. Army National Guard network for nine months in 2024, walking off with admin creds and network maps—perfect for flipping the lights during a crisis.
The Timetable
China’s cyber roadmap hangs on three milestones:
2027: PLA modernization declaration—critical inflection point for east-west relations & very credible threat to Taiwan.
2029‑2031: Expected quantum‑tech leap.
2049: Centennial “national rejuvenation.”
Each date drives today’s tasking orders.
Doctrine Shift: From Unrestricted to Multi‑Domain Precision
“Unrestricted Warfare” (1999) was the opening pitch. Now it’s Multi‑Domain Precision Warfare—AI‑driven, cross‑domain strikes aimed at critical dependencies, not tanks and planes. Think “systems destruction” instead of firefights.
The Weaponization Machine
Military‑Civil Fusion turns every Chinese lab, startup, and F-500 PRC peer orgs into a feeder line for the PLA. April 2024’s reorg carved cyber forces into:
Cyberspace Force (CSF): Offense and info war.
Information Support Force (ISF): Runs the pipes.
MSS: Global intel & cyber‑espionage.
Cyber Militias: Plausible‑denial crews “living off the land.”
Economic Strikes & Current Threat
IP theft bleeds the U.S. an estimated $225‑$600 billion a year. March 2024’s arrest of an Army analyst selling manuals is just one dot on a huge map. Critical infrastructure—energy, telecom, finance, transport, water—already hosts Chinese implants or is one overlooked patch away.
Traditional checkbox security can’t stop an adversary that doesn’t separate war from peace or civilian from military.
Looking Ahead
Over the next four issues we’ll move from 30,000‑foot view to ground truth: which U.S. systems are most exposed and how China plans to flip the switch. Next week: a walkthrough of the weak points in critical infrastructure—and what happens if they’re lit up during a Taiwan Strait showdown.
Quick Hits
China’s ops are timed for 2027 and 2049 goals.
Military‑Civil Fusion puts the whole nation on the field.
Implants like Volt Typhoon, Salt Typhoon sit inside U.S. grids today.
Compliance‑only programs won’t cut it. Whack-a-mole cyber definitely won’t cut it.
The clock isn’t ticking toward the threat—it already struck midnight.
Key Takeaways:
China's cyber operations follow a deliberate timeline toward 2027 and 2049 milestones
Military-Civil Fusion weaponizes every Chinese institution for strategic advantage
Pre-positioned malware like Volt Typhoon, Salt Typhoon (and others) already exists within U.S. critical infrastructure
Traditional security models are inadequate against China's integrated warfare doctrine
The threat window is now—not future—requiring immediate strategic response
The Plan Ahead:
Strategic Intent– China’s cyber doctrine, vision, and 2049 roadmapThe Taiwan Contingency – How China would attack U.S. infrastructure
Sector-by-Sector Threat Breakdown – Energy, Comms, Finance, Transport, Government, Water
Cascading Risks – How attacks in one area ripple across all others
Defending Forward – What leaders and front-line professionals must do now
Final Word:
Make no mistake: Our digital infrastructure IS our national defense. Every outage is a vulnerability. Every system failure is a victory for those who want to see democracy fail. The clock is ticking, our adversaries are moving, and many in our society are still treating this like an IT problem. It's not. It's existential, if our adversary has its way.
Have a safe weekend, Raptor Community.
The DR Team
/smb
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